Global M&A by the Numbers: Q1 2025

On the surface, M&A in Q1 of 2025 appeared to show building momentum to kick off the year. Announced deal values for the quarter reflect a +8% gain over Q4 2024 and a +15% gain over Q1 2024, with the United States accounting for 58% of global activity. March was the largest month in three years in terms of aggregate deal values at $340 B. However, Q1 deal counts declined sharply, down -19% from Q4, underscoring broad uncertainty for global M&A markets. February saw only 3,208 deals announced, which represented the fewest number of monthly deals announced over the past four years.

Over the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, corporate M&A activity for deals over $100 million typically ranged between 800 and 1,000 transactions annually. Although deal volumes rose 6% year-over-year (y/y) in Q1 2025, slower dealmaking momentum at the end of the quarter along with a cautious macroeconomic outlook suggests that momentum will likely slow. 

According to the EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer, corporate M&A volumes are projected to remain flat in 2025 – totaling 1,142 deals – following a robust 18% rebound in 2024. 

In our optimistic macroeconomic scenario – where GDP growth and corporate profits are stronger, inflation cooler and interest rates lower – we anticipate the total number of deals to increase by 6% in 2025.  

In their pessimistic scenario – where GDP growth and corporate profits are weaker, inflation hotter and interest rates higher – deal volume is expected to contract by 6% in 2025.